Category Archives: 2011 Playoffs

The Most Exciting Non-Steelers Super Bowl I Can Remember

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So…kind of a big game this Sunday, right? Let’s get right to the preview. You know the drill by now from my other Playoff previews. Offenses, Defenses, Special Teams, and Prediction. Buckle up.

Offense: Brady, Welker, Hernandez, Gronkowski, and the never-fumbling Law Firm. Eli, Nicks, Cruz, Manningham, Bradshaw, and Jacobs. There are plenty of capable offensive players in this game, but teams have contrasting styles. Starting with the Giants, their strengths are utilizing arguably the best complete skill set among a receiving triumvirate (I’m paid by the letter) in the NFL. They do damage on the perimeter and run to supplement the pass.

The Patriots, however, utilize players whose strengths are on the interior to maintain offensive flexibility and force their opponents to show their hands before they fully commit to a play. It is this interior focus that is the biggest difference in the team’s elite offensive status this year compared to years past (more on this later – TEASER!).

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Conference Championship Weekend

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Which one of these guys do you think is the more competent leader, person, player?

Ravens at Patriots
Offense: We could talk about how Ray Rice needs to be a key or how unstoppable Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are, but let’s just make this simple, shall we?  One team is led by Joe Flacco.  One is led by Tom Brady.  It’s very clear that not only is one offense significantly better than the other, but that it’s the best single unit in the game.

Defense: Much like the offenses, one is clearly better than the other.  New England spent the regular season getting thrown all over but was a mildly respectable 17th against the run.  Baltimore has “ball hawks” (wow, I hate that term) – albeit aging ones – all over the field.  Ray Lewis isn’t the same guy from 10 years ago (I love when analysts say that, as if anyone is), but he can still do certain things well.  Among those things, however, is NOT running backwards and covering tight ends – especially super-freak, robot tight ends.

Baltimore’s defense is much heralded, but outside of Ben Roethlisberger twice (grrrr), let’s see some of the QBs that led the teams they’ve beaten: Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Kevin Kolb, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, Colt McCoy, Dan Orlovsky, and Seneca Wallace.  That doesn’t even include losses to teams led by Matt Hasselbeck, Blaine Gabbert, and Tarvaris Jackson.

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Divisional Round Preview: AFC

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Written last night, publishing this afternoon.

In case you weren’t paying attention, I previewed last week’s Wild Card Round. I went 4-0 ATS and 3-1 straight up (thanks again to my Steelers for that). Since that went well, let’s use the same Offense, Defense, Special Teams, Prediction this week.

Not a fan of the Tebow-Overload, but hey, this might get me some hits...

Broncos at Patriots (let’s not make this all about Tim Tebow)
Offense: Denver’s offense is very unsophisticated. They’ll put together a few drives but only because New England doesn’t provide much resistance.  Running will have to be much more of a factor than passing this week to keep New England’s offense off the field. Speaking of weapons, either Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez will put up huge stats in this game.  Denver doesn’t have the linebackers or safeties to cover both of them.

Defense: New England was one of the league’s worst defenses – not among playoff teams, among the whole league.  Denver has talented pass rushers and an elite corner, but the rest is shaky. Much like my preview of Steelers-Broncos, I’m interested to see who Champ Bailey will cover.  He’d be best used shadowing one of the tight ends while Denver employs double teams on Wes Welker and the other TE Bailey isn’t guarding.  The use of Von Miller will be interesting here.  As said, blitzing New England can be a death sentence so the “Von-Doom” tandem may be slightly neutralized.  Patrick Chung’s return for New England is a very under-reported story as he can help make their weak pass defense look functional this week.

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Divisional Round Preview: NFC

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In case you weren’t paying attention, I previewed last week’s Wild Card Round. I went 4-0 ATS and 3-1 straight up (thanks again to my Steelers for that). Since that went well, let’s use the same Offense, Defense, Special Teams, Prediction this week.

I know it's the ridiculously public pick, but I'm taking it anyway.

Saints at 49ers
Offense: If you think Offense vs Offense, this is a mismatch. But offenses don’t play against each other (aren’t you glad I’m here to point out things like that). New Orleans ranks 26th against the pass and 21st against the rush (28th overall) in Defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders. So maybe San Fran can move it well enough to keep this game close.

Defense: On the other hand, defenses don’t play against each other either. So while San Fran is #3 in Defensive DVOA and #1 in the NFL in Rushing Defense by a long way, they haven’t played against an offense even close to the caliber of the Saints yet. They’re also 16th against the pass – very average – and that’s with six games against the NFC West involved.

Special Teams: While New Orleans is solid yet unspectacular at most facets of Special Teams, San Fran is excellent in multiple phases. Ted Ginn will return from injury to handle returns; Andy Lee has 21 punts inside the 20 compared to seven touchbacks; and David Akers was the #41 scorer overall in my fantasy league this year (which actually highlights this team’s Red Zone struggles more than anything else and leads me into my prediction).

Prediction: Every year, a surprise team gets a first round bye and then reminds us why that was such a surprise (see: the 2010-11 Falcons). I’ve had the 49ers pegged as said team for about two months now. 28-19, Saints (1 unit).

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STEELERS at Broncos – Making Me More Nervous by the Minute

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Steelers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Here’s the list of injuries on the Pittsburgh side of things.

  • Rashard Mendenhall – OUT
  • Maurkice Pouncey – OUT
  • Ben Roethlisberger – Hobbled, setback last week
  • Doug Legursky – Probably to play but missed Week 17 after Week 16 shoulder injury
  • Mewelde Moore – Hasn’t played since the game in San Francisco; expected to play

Add to that the fact that Running Backs Coach Kirby Wilson was badly burned in a house fire, and things are beginning to look ominous.

The Running Game
Redman ran incredibly well last week in his first extended stint as the lead back – until he fumbled twice in the fourth quarter. For all the talk by Pittsburgh fans about Mendenhall’s fumbling, how many fumbles do you think he has in his career? Six (seven if you include the one in last year’s Super Bowl). In 813 career carries. He carries the ball in a unique way that scares people, and he had one very high-profile fumble. But he’s not a fumbler.

Redman is capable of performing well over 20-25 carries. Mewelde Moore will see almost all third down work of more than one yard to go and will likely get 5-10 carries himself. Regardless of who it is, the run game has to show up. 3rd and long’s are not a way to thrive against two great edge rushers and when you have a gimpy QB.

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