Category Archives: FBG Roundtables

Fantasy Football: Overvalued Players

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Each year, the footballguys.com staff is asked to choose undervalued players, overvalued players, and deep sleepers based on Average Draft Position. Clicking HERE will take you to a page with links to each article (still free at this time of year!)

Since every staffer is obviously oozing with fantasy knowledge (and gets to pick 3-5 players per position), each piece tends to be lengthy. So in this space, I’m providing a break down of how the votes played out (displaying any players who got three or more votes or were selected by me) and will share only the very compelling cases for certain players. I’ll also highlight the guys I voted for with BOLD print. Off we go…

QuarterbacksRobert Griffin III – 7 votes

Heath Cummings – Current ADP shows Griffin taken ahead of Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman…all of whom will outproduce him in 2012. Don’t get me wrong, I still like Griffin better than Andrew Luck, I just think everyone is getting a little excited because of what Cam Newton did last year. That was an anomaly, not the norm to expect from athletic rookie quarterbacks in the future.

Cam Newton – 7 votes

Steve Holloway – Newton ranked as the #4 quarterback a year ago as a rookie even though he ranked 10th in passing yards. I expect that his rushing yards (709 yards) and TDs (14) will significantly decrease this year leading him to fall back in the rankings.

I have to interject here and disagree with my esteemed colleague – not because I think he’ll be wrong but because of the reasoning. Newton’s rushing numbers may well go down, but some maturation is to be expected as he enters his second season – and his first with mini-camps and OTA’s. A bigger – but less-used – knock on Newton is the fact that defenses adjusted to Carolina’s long-ball attack, and Newton’s passing numbers went down in the second half.
Continue reading the players footballguys.com staff thinks are overvalued

Fantasy Football: Undervalued Players

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Each year, the footballguys.com staff is asked to choose undervalued players, overvalued players, and deep sleepers based on Average Draft Position. Clicking HERE will take you to a page with links to each article (still free at this time of year!)

Since every staffer is obviously oozing with fantasy knowledge (and gets to pick 3-5 players per position), each piece tends to be lengthy. So in this space, I’m providing a break down of how the votes played out (displaying any players who got three or more votes or were selected by me) and will share only the very compelling cases for certain players. I’ll also highlight the guys I voted for with BOLD print. Off we go…

Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger – 9 votes

Matt Waldman – One thing that Todd Haley does well is maximize the effectiveness of his offensive weaponry. The Steelers have the makings of a dominant passing offense and I think Haley will create a system that elevates this team into a unit that can compete with the likes of the Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles as that next tier of aerial attacks just a notch below the best units in the league.

Click here to read the rest of the Footballguys Undervalued Players

A Footballguys.com Preseason Roundtable Sampling (5/24/12)

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Breakout Candidates

Quarterbacks
I like Josh Freeman to break out this season. Last year, Freeman regressed from his fabulous 2010 campaign. The regression is likely from multiple factors. First, the team had a poor coaching situation. The players around Freeman stopped respecting Raheem Morris’ player’s coach, laissez-faire attitude that seemed to work so well the year prior. Second, Freeman’s top wide receiver — Mike Williams — was out of shape and didn’t exert the level of effort expected of him. Freeman was slightly out of shape as well. This season, Freeman gets a new No. 1 WR in Vincent Jackson and has been shedding weight and getting in better shape. Williams is now a very above-average No. 2 WR if he can get his head on straight. Freeman won’t be a top-5 quarterback, but top-10 isn’t out of the question.

Running Backs
I’ll take the rookie out of Virginia Tech; David Wilson flashed great skills during his Hokie career. Those skills will allow him to get on the field even despite the presence of Ahmad Bradshaw. Speaking of Bradshaw, let’s not forget all of the foot problems he has had in the past couple seasons. Even if Bradshaw can remain healthy, this offense has shown its ability to support two fantasy RBs in recent years. If Wilson can run in an inside-to-out fashion and avoid fumbling, he’ll be given a nearly equal share of carries.

Continue with my responses to the FBG Preseason Roundtable

A Footballguys.com Preseason Roundtable Sampling (5/8/12)

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49ers Offense

The 49ers flirted with signing a veteran quarterback to replace Alex Smith this offseason, but ultimately stayed with Smith – and brought in a slew of weapons to surround him with.

They relied on the running game in 2011, throwing fewer passes than every team except the Broncos. In particular, the WRs as a group were seldom targeted. With the offseason acquisitions of Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, and first-round pick A.J. Jenkins at WR, does it look like that plan will change? Will coach Harbaugh turn Alex Smith loose and try to attack defenses down the field more this season?

MY RESPONSE: While the Niners did bring in some weapons, the possibility of Jim Harbaugh changing his style significantly after such a successful first season seems like a strange idea. While Manningham, Moss, and Jenkins are new weapons, there isn’t a true No. 1 WR among them. Manningham may be the best of the bunch, and no one has ever considered him an elite player. Moss isn’t even a lock to make the team (look at his low salary, place on the depth chart, the fact that three teams threw him away TWO seasons ago, and his lack of presence on special teams as reason why that claim can be made). A.J. Jenkins is a player that not many people graded out as a first-round talent. In fact, there were many stories about the Niners brass having his name written in an envelope before the draft started. While it’s nice to get “your guy,” the Niners picked at 30 – meaning Jenkins wasn’t anyone else’s guy. Perhaps there’s a reason for that.

Continue Reading my responses to the FBG Roundtable

A Footballguys.com Roundtable Sampling (12/22)

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Every week, a handfull of FootballGuys.com Staffers are asked a handful of questions on relevant NFL and/or fantasy topics.  Every couple of weeks, I am one of those Staffers.  While I can’t share the whole article (subscribers only), I will “sneak preview” portions that I wrote.

Fantasy MVP

Who’s this season’s fantasy MVP?

Drafted way late? Exceeded even the highest ceiling of expectations? That's a Fantasy MVP.

MY RESPONSE: I prefer to weigh where players were drafted in my evaluation. With each ongoing round in fantasy drafts, things become less and less certain. In a perfect world, every player drafted in the Top-4 rounds gives you what you thought you’d get when drafting him. Teams that win fantasy championships don’t do so because their first four picks all panned out. They win because of the middle and late round “lottery ticket” guys that cashed in.

Therefore, my Fantasy MVP is Cam Newton. Drafted as an afterthought simply based on the high ceiling brought about by his athletic attributes, Newton not only reached that ceiling but shattered through it. If you drafted him, you likely thought, “what the heck, maybe he’ll be a nice platoon guy because his rushing ability can get me some extra points.” Instead, he was likely your full-time starter as early as Week 2.

Counting NONE of his passing stats, Newton would be the #19 RB in standard scoring leagues right now – ahead of highly-drafted backs like Rashard Mendenhall, Cedric Benson, and LeGarrette Blount. 609 yards on the ground, a 27-yard catch, and 13 rushing TDs are 141 points that most QBs won’t get you. Considering he came from the “bargain-bin,” Newton takes home my Fantasy MVP Honors.

Continue Reading the Week 16 Roundtable