Category Archives: Lucky Seven

College Football Gambling Picks – The Big Shake-up

1 Reply

I think Sunday’s headlines are something like “A Wild Week in College Football” due to so many close games and upsets. When the calendar turns to November, odd things can happen. My prediction for the week: between Oregon, K-State, and Bama, someone is losing outright this week. Without further ado…

LSU +9.5 vs Alabama
Despite what seems to be a widespread perception, LSU isn’t a bad team. With two weeks to prepare, I like the Mad Hatter Les Miles to dial up at least one successful fake kick. LSU doesn’t win, but this will be Bama’s closest game of the year – including an eventual National Championship Game.

Oklahoma State +9.5 at Kansas State
Are you ready to live in a world where K-State goes undefeated and goes to the National Title game? I’m not. They’ll either lose this game or their next one (at TCU). So plan for a K-State win by a TD here and me to be against them next week too.

Continue reading →

College Football Gambling Picks – Run in the Opposite Direction

2 Replies

North Carolina -7 vs NC State
The Heels are coming off a loss to Duke (yeah, in football), but their well-balance offense should continue to develop here. I don’t think Mike Glennon (whose rap MC name would be Master Dink-Dunky based on his coaching staff’s play-calling style) can hang.

Georgia +6.5 vs Florida (The Game Formerly Known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, in Jacksonville)
Florida has been incredibly surprising – even to their own fans. But living in Central Florida, I’m hearing a lot of looking ahead in the form of, “all we have left is Georgia, then it’s a crappy Mizzou team at home, two cupcakes, and FSU – which doesn’t matter because if we beat Bama in the SEC title game, we’ll be in the National Championship.” As you can tell by the long sentence, that’s a LOT of looking ahead. Perhaps the players are too.

Continue reading →

College Football Lucky Seven: Playing for Pride

1 Reply

Last week, I was on vacation and didn’t post a Lucky Seven. That’s probably a good thing because if you follow me on twitter, you’ll know I went 1-6.

I’m now playing only for the week-high bonuses in my contest, which means I’m going with an even uglier card than normal. Follow at your own peril, I don’t even know what times these games are on. Just know that I’m due for a big week.

Cal +3
Rivalry game, typically close, home team. Why not?

Michigan -10
Denard Robinson is due for a monster game. Sparty really struggles on offense.

TCU +2.5
Texas Tech letdown spot. TCU is undefeated when their QB doesn’t get a DUI the week of the game.

Continue reading →

College Football Lucky Seven – Week 6: The Big Bounceback

Leave a reply

Last week was brutal.  After winning one of the two early games I took, I went 1-5 with the other six picks.  Time to get this train back on the tracks, so I switched up my strategy ever so slightly.  This week is a little more football and stats and a little less just going against the public folks.

Penn State -3 vs Northwestern – 12:00pm EST
Northwestern is 5-0, but the resume is wholly unimpressive (only one road game; “best” opponent Vanderbilt). Penn State began the season with a loss to Ohio and is only 3-2, but that 3-2 is arguably more impressive. The only other loss came in a game where their kicker missed four (!) field goals. Early start, home team, more physical team, defense coming into its own, opponent overachieving against weak opponents. Let’s do it.

Iowa State +11 at TCU – 3:30pm EST
TCU QB Casey Pachall was arrested for DWI earlier in the week and has been suspended indefinitely. I, however, got this contest line prior to Pachall’s little joyride. It’s now around 7. Going with the “value” here.

Illinois +14.5 at Wisconsin – 3:30pm EST
Wisconsin had a nice showing last week, but this still isn’t the Wisconsin team we know from past seasons. The Badgers offense only averages 3.2 yards per carry, and their best player is their running back. Illinois has been dreadful all year, but two touchdowns and a hook looks nice.

Continue getting Lucky

College Football Lucky Seven – Week 5

Leave a reply

Once again it’s Friday. So once again it’s time for the College Football Lucky Seven – where I pick seven of Saturday’s college games against the spread as part of a contest I’m in.

Like most weeks, I’m employing a mix of stats, anti-over reactions, and “why the heck is THAT the line for this game?”

Iowa -6.5 vs Minnesota – NOON EST
Iowa fell to 2-2 after losing a home game to Central Michigan last week. Minnesota is 4-0. Iowa is favored – and by nearly a touchdown? That’s definitely ugly enough to grab my attention.

Central Florida -2.5 vs Missouri – NOON EST
My alma mater, the UCF Knights, hosts its first ever SEC opponent – even though Mizzou has been part of the conference for 10 minutes. I talked about this game over at my buddy Zach Law’s blog. Check it out for further thoughts and follow Zach for his excellent “Ask Your Fantasy Expert” interview series.

Much like you’d probably expect when an SEC team plays a Conference USA team, Mizzou is getting a very large portion of the action. When the average joe says, “wow, I get the better team and the points,” it’s best to run – not walk – in the other direction. For those looking for actual football info, UCF averages 7.5 yards per pass attempt on offense, and Mizzou averages 7.1 yards allowed per attempt. Conversely, Mizzou’s offense averages 5.9 yards per attempt while UCF’s defense averages 5.3 allowed.

Continue reading →