On Friday, Seth Davis wrote an article which had content based on various conversations he had with two coaches – head coaches or assistants – from each of the six power conferences (although including the “Whack-12″ in that phrase is a mighty big stretch this season).  Davis granted the coaches full anonymity to foster an environment where they’d be as honest as possible in their reports on each team.  Davis centered much of his questioning around the problems or shortcomings of each team.  

Reading the article got me thinking.  Do the actual numbers back up the intuitions and observations from the coaches?  Let’s go to our favorite treasure trove of statistics – KenPom.com – for analysis.  For the sake of your time (and mine), I won’t copy the entire paragraph on each team, and we’ll only examine the teams I feel are Elite Eight (or beyond) contenders.  Yesterday, we previewed Elite Eight-caliber teams from three conferences.  Today, we’ll preview three more.

Today, we’ll lead off with the league from which I will highlight the most teams – the B1G.

Indiana: They have a lot of mistake makers and I don’t think they defend…they shoot the ball well from the three.

The Hoosiers are perhaps this year’s most surprising team.  In terms of mistake-makers, they’re 104th as a team in Turnover % Offense.  They don’t defend as well as the play offense, but they’re a respectable 44th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.  As for shooting it well from three, that’s an understatement.  The Hoosiers are 2nd nationally in Three Point Field Goal Percentage Offense.

Continue reading Statistics vs. Insight, Part II