Start, Sit, and FLEX – Week 11

If your league is anything like most, there’s a clear top tier of teams, a clear middle, and a clear bottom.  While teams from different tiers are going about getting there in different ways, every team is ultimately trying to do the same thing – win enough games to get to the playoffs and win the whole thing.  So here are some lineup decisions to help you with this week.

Start ‘Em
QB – Andrew Luck (at NE) – I see this game going one of two ways: either Indy plays inspired and keeps it close; or New England blows their doors off.  Either of those situations are conducive to Luck throwing for many yards and multiple touchdowns.  Fire away.

RB – Alfred Morris, WAS (vs PHI) – Philadelphia’s rushing defense is slightly below average anyway, but this team is a mess.  It looks like they’ve clearly given up on Andy Reid, and the veterans can’t be too pleased that management is clearly pushing for Nick Foles to play out the season so they can evaluate his future.  This one could be a blowout in Washington’s favor, which benefits Morris.

RB – Felix Jones, DAL (vs CLE) – Jones scored on a flare pass last week and came out of the game healthy (which is saying something for him).  DeMarco Murray still isn’t ready, and Cleveland has allowed 134 yards and 1.3 touchdowns rushing per game in the last four weeks.  I expect Dallas to control this one from start to finish.

WR – Denarius Moore, OAK (vs NO) – Moore is one of my favorite fantasy players because he is consistently good and always provides the upside of being great.  Even better, he does all of that in a pretty under-the-radar fashion.  As we saw last week, even if the Raiders get blown out, there’s fantasy value in their passing game.  With the two top backs still unhealthy, expect Oakland to throw it early and often – as usual.

WR – Danny Amendola, STL (vs NYJ) – The Jets can be a tough pass defense for #1 WRs because of Antonio Cromartie’s presence at corner.  However, Cromartie is a “strider” – a player who is most effective on the perimeter making athletic plays and being long.  Amendola is the exact opposite.  If Cromartie does shadow the super slot man, Amendola will turn it into his game – not Cromartie’s.  If Cromartie doesn’t shadow Amendola, the other Jets corners simply aren’t good enough to hang with him.  In PPR, he’s an absolute no-brainer.

WR – Marques Colston, NO (at OAK) – There might be 800+ passing yards in this game.  Neither of these teams can stop the pass (and in the Saints’ case, they can’t stop the run either).  Lean towards getting the passing game players in this matchup into your lineups this week.

WR – Mike Wallace, PIT (vs BAL) – Just a reminder to not totally forget about him. Byron Leftwich plays slow, delivers slow, but throws long. Baltimore will no doubt be leaning forward for the run.

TE – Dwayne Allen, IND (at NE) – I was going to repeat last week’s call of Greg Olsen here (vs TB), and I also thought of repeating the “TE against Denver” line of thinking (Antonio Gates).  But if you have those guys, you’re likely starting them without another choice.  Allen is a little deeper of a dig, but New England is allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to tight ends.  And fellow-rookie TE Coby Fleener is still out with an injury.

Sit ‘Em
QB – Philip Rivers, SD (at DEN) – Rivers had a nice fantasy day last week, although his mind-numbingly stupid decision on the game-clinching pick-six by Tampa Bay more than tainted his real game performance.  Champ Bailey and company should hold Rivers in check.  And I actually think San Diego keeps this one manageable, limiting garbage time production.

RB – Frank Gore, SF (vs CHI) – The Bears defense should be extra fired up for this game in an effort to pick up slack for the offense being without Jay Cutler.  Gore is beginning to get some small injuries, and the team will need to keep him strong long past Week 17.  Temper expectations.

RB – BenJarvus Green-Ellis, CIN (vs NYG) – I see the Giants doing everything the opposite of last week, and they were absolutely gashed by Isaac Redman and Pittsburgh. They should also control this game and limit the Law Firm’s chances.

WR – Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (at ATL) – it’s always tough to bench a stud, so perhaps sitting Fitzy out is a bit extreme.  But Atlanta’s pass defense has been very stout all year long, and the whole “West Coast team being sluggish for a 1PM start” notion sticks with me.

TE – Vernon Davis, SF (vs CHI) – If Davis’ owners haven’t lost patience in him yet, they’re far better men or women than me.  Cover-2 schemes are susceptible to being gashed by the tight end, but the Bears have done a nice job this season (8th-fewest fantasy points to TEs).

I Wanna FLEX You Up
Green Light (when in doubt…)
Marcel Reece – rushing or receiving, New Orleans doesn’t provide a ton of resistance
DeSean Jackson – if he’s your WR3/FLEX, I feel better about your team than if he’s your WR2
Torrey Smith – no Troy Polamalu, likely no Ryan Clark, and Smith has done well against the Steelers
Lance Moore – same logic as Colston above
Daniel Thomas – the now-preferred side of a committee facing the worst run D in the league

Yellow Light (only if there’s no one else)
Brandon LaFell – Tampa allowing 345 yds and 3.0 TDs per game over the last four weeks
Rashad Jennings – good chance he has more receiving yards than rushing while playing catch-up all game long
Josh Gordon – Dallas has a pair of very tough CBs, but his skill set tells you he only needs one play
Vick Ballard – New England rush defense not nearly as beatable as their pass defense; Donald Brown healthy too
Joique Bell – if you’re of the mind that Green Bay gets ahead early and stays there
Michael Crabtree – Peanut Tillman awaits, but Crabtree has performed very well of late (including his last MNF game)

Red Light (very deep league or very bad roster)
Jacquizz Rodgers – in case the Falcons finally realize that there’s no tread left on the Turner tires
Andre Roberts – if I’m debating sitting Fitzgerald above, Roberts shouldn’t be anywhere near a lineup
Justin Forsett – for all the Ben Tate drafters reading this
Mohamed Sanu – look for Cincy to expand his role against a meager KC team but still not a preferred option every down

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Posted in Fantasy, Football, Weekly Matchups
14 comments on “Start, Sit, and FLEX – Week 11
  1. SanBow says:

    What are your thoughts on McGahee? Seems like they were relying on him while Manning gained his arm strength, but the last few weeks it seems like he has taken a back seat to Peyton(in the gameplan). I just traded McFadden for McGahee and DeAngelo last week. Should I be concerned about his production moving forward?

    With all that said should I dare start him over Fitz this week?

    • SanBow,
      I wouldn’t be worried about that trade at all. McFadden may be out two more weeks, and at this time of the fantasy season, you need players who are playing.

      McGahee is a top-10 RB the rest of the way as long as he’s healthy. Game plans shift depending on opponent, not just offensive ones but defensive too. Peyton throwing it around all over will have defenses playing the pass and open things up for McGahee. His low-carry games seem to be when Denver is winning handily, and things won’t come as easily all the time.

      Thanks for coming back.

      • SanBow says:

        Love this site, will be a regular now, haha.

        In my league you have to start at least 1 RB and 1 WR and then there are 2 RB/WR spots I need to fill. Already played Spiller and am starting Foster. So that leaves me with having to play a WR for sure and then a RB/WR. So having 2nd thoughts on my initial gut lineup with Amendola and Fitz filling those last two spots. Based on your post and your comment I should start Amendola and McGahee and bench Fitz. What do you think?

      • SanBow,
        Thanks for the kind words. I think McGahee has to be in there, so your decision is between the WRs. PPR, I lean Amendola. Standard, Fitzgerald. It’s close though, and ultimately – your team, your call. Good luck.

  2. Ben says:

    Having a hard time deciding on my #2 at RB. My league had 20yds. per point rushing and receiving instead of 10. I got Steven Jackson, Felix Jones, and Marcel Reece, and I have been ready to start all three, and it isn’t even Saturday yet! I was leaning towards Sjax or Reece and really towards SJax, but am worried all those touches last week were a mirage and he won’t get the ball. Reece worries mebecause I can’t see him scoring from outside the redzone and Oakland could be bomb or bust. And Felix is made of glass.

    • Ben, that’s not a bad problem to have. All are good options. I rank them Jackson, Reece, Jones.

      • Ben says:

        Lol right you are! I managed to dig out from under my underachieving draft and may just make playoffs. Not one person willing to make a trade all season period. Trying to adjust from trying to pick a few points from trash to picking from plenty. :) Thank god I didn’t start Hartline for T. Smith last night! I like the site a lot, can never read too much, even when I know what I am going to do.I like your analysis of the matchups going foward, your numbers look a little better than most of what I have been looking at for next few weeks.Hoping T.Smith and D.Moore can stay hot and Gates as well. Maybe Hernandez will reward me for waiting. Curious, what do you see for Larry Fitzgerald next few weeks? I saw something a couple of weeks ago saying as bad as his numbers are so far this year, they aren’t that far off where he was same time last year. In our aggrevatingly limited scoring format just can’t see myself starting 4 of Smith/Moore/Malcolm Floyd/Hartline/Gates/Hernandez/whatever is left on the wire over him any week. Anyway great site and thanks for your opinion,and sorry for the novella!

      • Ben,
        Glad you like the site so much. I think Fitz is a top-10 guy rest of the way. I’m of the opinion that people are down on him because his talent is so high that his production seems low. If Fitz and Denarius Moore put up the same numbers, people are impressed by Moore and disappointed by Fitz. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t a top option. Hopefully that doesn’t sound like random rambling – just a thought.

  3. Ben says:

    Know precisely what you mean. I managed to draft LeSean McCoy, Fitz, Antonio Gates and Steven Jackson first four rounds and was pretty happy about it when I left. Once the games start all that matters is whether they are good enough to have a roster spot and how to best deploy them. Some people get illogical, the inverse of sunk cost. Denarious Moore is saving my season and I got him 3rd hand off waivers before week 4. Last guy to cut him only has 4 receivers on roster now and one of them is Donald Jones, oops. But yes it is a great site, wish I had found it sooner keep up the great content.

    • Thanks for the kind words. Best of luck finishing strong. There’s still a lot of football left (albeit not enough).

      I hope you like college hoops. If so, you’ll enjoy my content all the way through March. There are fewer college hoop resources out there than fantasy football, so I think my style and info can stand out more on the “brackets” side of things.

      • Ben says:

        Big Duke fan and from what I have seen so far, Alabama finally learned to knock down a 3ball in the offseason. Way to early prediction here considering their youth and how much have to grow and gel but: they don’t have to sweat on Selection Sunday this year and steal at least a first round game in the tournament.

  4. jason says:

    Ouch….maybe you should swap your start / sit lineups….

  5. Alfie says:

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