Monthly Archives: August 2012

The Return of the Lucky Seven

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You may or may not recall that I was in a College Football “against the spread” contest last year. After being inspired to write the first (and only) live blog this little website has ever had. Since I choked away 1st place, I’m back for redemption this season.

These are my Week 1 picks. I’ve been spending so much time with NFL/fantasy lately that College Football actually snuck up in me. In other words, if you want in-depth analysis of why I picked who I did, you’ve come to the wrong place.

All games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.

9:00am
Navy +16.5 vs Notre Dame
It’s on a neutral site (Dublin, Ireland). And Ty Hildebrandt of The Solid Verbal (Irish fan) has alluded many times to taking Navy in this game.

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NFL Conference Previews: NFC

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Holy crap! We’re less than ONE WEEK away from the beginning of the NFL season. I think it’s about darn time I gave you some completely unsolicited opinions about the league and how I think each team will fare. This exercise showcases the best and worst parts of writing a blog. If my predictions are right, you sure as heck know I’ll link it as often as I can. However, if they’re wrong, that can be proven by others too.

Just so everyone knows, I didn’t simply look at schedules by team and assign a certain record for each. I looked at the WHOLE schedule and picked EVERY game – meaning if one team got a win, another got a loss. No Mike-and-Mike-style mathematically impossible records here!

NFC North

The “Wild Card” in the NFC (see what I did there?)

Storylines:

  • Can Chicago be the pre-Jay Cutler-injury team for all 17 weeks this year?
  • Can Detroit avoid being another in the long line of 10-win teams that disappointed the following season?
  • Can the Packers rebound from the 15-win regular season and zero-win postseason?
  • Will Minnesota be the 2013 version of St. Louis (the team that has a top-two draft pick but already drafted its “franchise QB”)?

Fantasy!
Studs: Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings

Starters: Kevin Smith, Titus Young, Brandon Pettigrew, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin

Sleepers: Jay Cutler, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, Kyle Rudolph

Key Games:
Chicago at Green Bay – Week 2: A chance right out of the gate to see what Da Bears are made of…tough scheduling – a Thursday Night road game

Green Bay at Chicago – Week 15: if the teams happen to be closer in the standings than I’m projecting, this could be for the division.

Chicago at Detroit – Week 17: I have both teams at 9-6 entering the game with Chicago stealing it.

Footballandbrackets Predictions:

  • Green Bay – 14-2
  • Chicago – 10-6 *
  • Detroit – 9-7
  • Minnesota – 4-12

Read the rest of the NFC predictions

My Grantland Fantasy Sports Writer Contest Entry

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Below is my entry into the contest to become Grantland’s fantasy sports writer. I hope it is funny, I hope it stands out, but most of all, I hope they read it. In case they don’t (or in case it’s not good enough), I’ve substituted my real name with [footballandbrackets]. Those of you who want to or know me already are certainly aware that this isn’t the most well-kept secret in the world, but I still am reluctant to “go public” – unless it’s for the opportunity to be affiliated with a huge monster of a site like ESPN. I went with the “gratuitous suck-up” style of writing.

Editor’s Note: I was unfortunately not selected to move on to the next round, but here it is anyway…

The rules said to list the top-five fantasy “players,” but instead of simply writing a boring list of the same five NFL players as thousands of other submissions, I’m striving for uniqueness with a list of Grantland’s top-five fantasy owners and comparing them to the players in my top-five fantasy rankings.

5) Bill Simmons
I pretty much had to have the Editor-in-Chief on this list to have any shot, right?

As the leader of Grantland, Simmons is a “field general,” a guy who blends the highly-varying skills of his many talented weapons into an elite team. Simmons is the Tom Brady of this list.1
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Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Reachers and Settlers

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Robin: “Every good relationship has a reacher and a settler.”
Ted: “Exactly, one person reaches for someone out of their league, the other one settles for someone below theirs.”

The quote above is from a Season 5 episode of “How I Met Your Mother.” It’s describing the dynamic between the two members of a relationship. For instance, when I show people a picture of Mrs. FnB, they know full well that I’m the reacher, and she settled for me. If you want to hear audio of the exchange above, click here.

Why is this quote and explanation the beginning of what is allegedly a fantasy football post? I’m using it in lieu of such titles as “sleepers” and “busts.” Here is how each term will be defined:

Reacher: a player I would draft at least a half-round above his ADP in early rounds (1-3), a full round above his ADP for middle rounds (4-12), and two or more rounds above his ADP for late rounds (13 and after)

Settler: a player I would not draft until at least a half-round below his ADP in early rounds (1-3), a full round below his ADP for middle rounds (4-12), and two or more rounds below his ADP for late rounds (13 and after)

The reasons for the ranges chosen above should be fairly obvious. As the draft progresses, there are definitely diminishing returns on the expected point values the drafted players will yield. In Round 13, reaching for a “lottery ticket” whose ADP suggests Round 16 isn’t a bad move. In Round 1, grabbing a guy with an ADP in Round 3 is a significant risk (and frankly dumb, because he could most likely be had in Round 2).

Reachers
For formatting and informational purposes:
Player Name – ADP – Would Draft as High as…
Comment

Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski – ADP 14 and 15 – Would Select at 8 and 8
My boss / Footballguys.com Co-Owner Joe Bryant would say that these guys are worth a pick this early because of Value Based Drafting.

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Random Thoughts – The Olympics, A Dumb Commercial, and Fantasy

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Five Colored Rings
It seems like the Olympics started a month ago, so allow me to breeze through some early thoughts before getting into the more current ones.

The Opening Ceremonies are so overrated. Outside of the British rock music tribute part, these were boring. And don’t even get me started on the parade with every represented nation. The only thing that could make that parade even slightly exciting is to pause the TV as soon as you see the next country and make the following wagers: Name that Country and Guess How Many Olympians They Have. Remember this advice in four years.

Michael Phelps is awesome, and the fact that he still gets a little misty after each gold medal makes me like him more. But he’s not the greatest Olympian of all-time. Phelps competed in eight events. Lewis competed in four. Phelps’ medal count is 18/2/2 while Lewis’ is 9/1/0. Lewis’ events are also more diversified. The guy ran the 100m and did long jump – a bigger difference in skills than freestyle to butterfly.

I watched some indoor cycling last night. Those guys can MOVE. But in a three-lap race, they both waste a whole lap pedaling in slow motion for “strategic purposes.” I don’t get it. It’s a RACE, fellas!

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